Purpose

The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in the organization’s next strategic plan. This paper aims to report on this project to identify current and strategic issues influencing the future strategy of the higher education (HE) IZN for Thailand on behalf of the Bureau of International Cooperation Strategy and the Office of the Higher Education Commission.

Design/methodology/approach

The research approach was a customized version of the University of Houston’s Framework Foresight method. It involved framing the domain with a description and domain map, scanning for signals of change within the domain and emerging issues analysis to produce a set of current and emerging issues. A planning step synthesizes a set of recommended actions.

Findings

The key findings reported in this paper are the identification of 14 current and emerging issues influencing the future of the IZN of HE in Thailand. The issues were organized along with the three horizons framework: H1: how are we [currently] doing? H2: what should we do next and H3, where do we want to go? The primary recommendation of this research reported on in this study is to consider the 14 issues for inclusion into the next strategic plan. Seven specific strategic options mapped over three phases were identified as well. The research reported here was carried out for Thailand, but the process could easily be adapted by other countries and other topics.

Research limitations/implications

The modified version of the University of Houston Framework Foresight approach has been applied successfully to many topics. The topic explored here is focused on one nation, Thailand. The authors feel the lessons are, however, broadly applicable.

Practical implications

The ability to use a futurist perspective to identify current and emerging issues is highlighted. The organizing of the issues using the three horizons framework proved to be particularly useful in helping the client to develop a sense of timing regarding the future, that is, when and to what degree to pay attention to the many issues that typically confront any organization.

Originality/value

The use of the three horizons framework in the analysis of the emerging issues provide benefits in two ways in situating the likely timing of signals of change in horizon scanning and “scan hits” both scanning for the identification of issues and organizing the resulting current and emerging issues along the three horizons with H1 current issues: how are we [currently] doing?; H2 emerging issues: what should we do next and H3 emerging issues, where do we want to go? The paper also includes a section exploring the impact of Covid-19 on the likely timing of the issues identified just before the pandemic hit, finding that timing of some issues would speed up, some would stay the same and some would slow down.

中文翻译：

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影响未来高等教育国际化的关键问题：以泰国为例

目的

未来十年迅速变化的全球国际化背景 (IZN) 促使决定使用未来主义的视角来确定组织下一个战略计划中要考虑的问题。本文旨在代表国际合作战略局和高等教育委员会办公室报告该项目，以确定影响泰国高等教育 (HE) IZN 未来战略的当前和战略问题。

设计/方法/方法

研究方法是休斯顿大学框架展望方法的定制版本。它涉及用描述和域图来构建域，扫描域内的变化信号和新出现的问题分析，以产生一组当前和新出现的问题。计划步骤综合了一组推荐的操作。

发现

本文报告的主要发现是确定了影响泰国高等教育 IZN 未来的 14 个当前和新出现的问题。这些问题是与三个视野框架一起组织的：H1：我们[目前]做得如何？H2：接下来我们应该做什么，H3，我们想去哪里？本研究报告的这项研究的主要建议是考虑将 14 个问题纳入下一个战略计划。还确定了三个阶段的七个具体战略选项。此处报告的研究是针对泰国进行的，但该过程很容易被其他国家和其他主题所采用。

研究限制/影响

休斯顿大学框架前瞻方法的修改版本已成功应用于许多主题。这里探讨的主题集中在一个国家，泰国。然而，作者认为这些教训是广泛适用的。

实际影响

突出了使用未来主义视角来识别当前和新出现的问题的能力。事实证明，使用三个视野框架组织问题对于帮助客户形成对未来的时间感特别有用，即何时以及在何种程度上关注任何组织通常面临的许多问题。

原创性/价值

在分析新出现的问题时使用三个视界框架在定位视界扫描和“扫描命中”中变化信号的可能时间点方面提供了两种好处，既扫描以识别问题，又组织由此产生的当前和新出现的问题。H1当前问题的三个层面的问题：我们[目前]做得如何？；H2新出现的问题：下一步该怎么做，H3新出现的问题，我们要去哪里？该论文还包括一个部分，探讨 Covid-19 对大流行爆发之前确定的问题可能发生的时间的影响，发现某些问题的发生时间会加快，有些会保持不变，有些会放缓。