Waterbird populations in eastern Australia have been declining over the past 35 years primarily due to water resource development and resultant changes to natural river flows and flooding. To mitigate these impacts there is an increased allocation of water for the environment, including waterbird populations. We used population viability models to identify the frequency of breeding events required to reverse the trend and achieve long-term species’ management objectives. We found that the population size of straw-necked ibis was primarily dictated by the frequency of large breeding events and to a lesser extent by adult annual survival and the frequency of small breeding events. We identified combinations of small and large breeding events over the next 10 years required for increased population growth. We also assessed the likelihood of current water management policies increasing populations and thereby reversing the decline in eastern Australia’s waterbird populations.

过去 35 年来，澳大利亚东部的水鸟数量一直在下降，这主要是由于水资源开发以及由此导致的自然河流流量和洪水的变化。为了减轻这些影响，增加了环境用水的分配，包括水鸟种群。我们使用种群生存力模型来确定扭转趋势和实现长期物种管理目标所需的繁殖事件频率。我们发现草颈朱鹮的种群规模主要受大型繁殖事件的频率决定，在较小程度上受成人年存活率和小型繁殖事件的频率影响。我们确定了在未来 10 年内增加人口增长所需的小型和大型繁殖事件的组合。