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Risk-targeted hazard maps for Spain
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s10518-021-01189-8
A. Kharazian 1 , S. Molina 1, 2 , N. Agea-Medina 1 , J. J. Galiana-Merino 3, 4
Affiliation  

Many studies have demonstrated that the design of structures in a region through the uniform hazard principle does not guarantee a uniform collapse risk. Even in regions with similar Peak Ground Accelerations (PGAs) corresponding to the same mean return period, the seismic risk in terms of collapse probability will be significantly different mainly due to the shape of the hazard curves as well as uncertainties in structural capacities. In this paper, risk-targeted hazard mapping is being explored in peninsular Spain using a recently updated seismic hazard map. Since risk targeting involves multiple input parameters such as the model parameters of fragility curves, their variability was considered through their probability distribution as observed in reinforced concrete (RC) moment frame buildings, representing the most common building typology in Spain. The influence of the variation of these parameters on the risk results were investigated, and different assumptions for estimating the model parameters of fragility curves are illustrated. These assumptions were included in a fixed (generic) fragility curve or building-site-specific fragility curves. Different acceptable damage states (i.e., collapse and yielding) were considered concerning Spain’s seismicity level. Finally, the maps for risk-targeted design ground motions and risk coefficients are presented. It is outlined that the employment of risk-targeted analysis leads to the modifications for existing design ground motions due to the different shape of the hazard curves across Spain and considering the uncertainty of structural capacity. Moreover, it is found that using the building- and site-specific fragility curves could result in a more uniform seismic risk across the country.



中文翻译:

西班牙针对风险的灾害地图

许多研究表明,通过统一危险原则在一个区域内设计结构并不能保证统一的倒塌风险。即使在对应相同平均重现期的峰值地面加速度(PGA)相似的地区,坍塌概率方面的地震风险也会显着不同,这主要是由于危险曲线的形状以及结构能力的不确定性。在本文中,针对风险的危害映射正在使用最近更新的地震危险图在西班牙半岛进行探索。由于风险目标涉及多个输入参数,例如脆性曲线的模型参数,因此通过在钢筋混凝土 (RC) 力矩框架建筑中观察到的概率分布来考虑它们的可变性,这是西班牙最常见的建筑类型。研究了这些参数的变化对风险结果的影响,并说明了估计脆性曲线模型参数的不同假设。这些假设包含在固定(通用)脆弱性曲线或特定建筑地点的脆弱性曲线中。西班牙的地震活动水平考虑了不同的可接受损坏状态(即倒塌和屈服)。最后,提供了针对风险的设计地面运动和风险系数的地图。概述了由于西班牙各地危险曲线的不同形状并考虑到结构容量的不确定性,采用风险针对性分析导致对现有设计地面运动的修改。此外,发现使用特定于建筑物和特定地点的脆性曲线可能会导致全国范围内的地震风险更加统一。

更新日期:2021-07-29
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