The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous social and economic impact on societies in 2020. The epidemiological situation is evolving on a daily basis, and the methodology of how to evaluate the impact of the pandemic and the severity of its consequences is lacking. The only available high-frequency data now are the number of people who have contracted the illness, and the restrictive measures that authorities have implemented to contain the outbreak. The most important question now is whether authorities can prevent subsequent waves. The contribution of the paper is a dynamic model of COVID-19 outbreaks, on the basis of which we investigated the possible impact of the socio-economic behavior and restrictions on its waves. To build the model, a large database for different countries with a wide range of economic and social institutions was collected. We give a detailed description of the model and a comparison of the results with trajectories of the outbreaks in the countries under consideration. The proposed model describes the empirical results and can be used for timely and contemporary predictions of the stages of pandemics. Despite this, the model needs future development and verification because the pandemic is not over, and the accumulation of empirical information continues. Yet the model might also be useful as a basis for researching the impacts of other socio-economic and medical actions for containing pandemics.

2020 年，COVID-19 大流行对社会产生了巨大的社会和经济影响。流行病学形势每天都在变化，缺乏如何评估大流行影响及其后果严重程度的方法。现在唯一可用的高频数据是感染疾病的人数，以及当局为遏制疫情而实施的限制措施。现在最重要的问题是当局是否可以防止随后的浪潮。该论文的贡献是 COVID-19 爆发的动态模型，在此基础上，我们调查了社会经济行为和限制对其波的可能影响。为了建立模型，收集了具有广泛经济和社会制度的不同国家的大型数据库。我们详细描述了该模型，并将结果与​​所考虑国家的爆发轨迹进行了比较。所提出的模型描述了经验结果，可用于对大流行阶段的及时和当代预测。尽管如此，该模型还需要未来的发展和验证，因为大流行尚未结束，经验信息的积累仍在继续。然而，该模型也可能有助于作为研究其他社会经济和医疗行动对遏制流行病的影响的基础。所提出的模型描述了经验结果，可用于对大流行阶段的及时和当代预测。尽管如此，该模型还需要未来的发展和验证，因为大流行尚未结束，经验信息的积累仍在继续。然而，该模型也可能有助于作为研究其他社会经济和医疗行动对遏制流行病的影响的基础。所提出的模型描述了经验结果，可用于对大流行阶段的及时和当代预测。尽管如此，该模型还需要未来的发展和验证，因为大流行尚未结束，经验信息的积累仍在继续。然而，该模型也可能有助于作为研究其他社会经济和医疗行动对遏制流行病的影响的基础。