This paper estimates the potential distributional consequences of the first phase of the COVID-19 lockdowns on poverty and labour income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the lockdown by taking into account individuals’ teleworking capacity but also whether their occupation is affected by legal workplace closures or mobility restrictions. Furthermore, we compare the shares under the formal (de jure) lockdown policies assuming perfect compliance with the shares under de facto lockdowns where there is some degree of non-compliance. We then estimate individuals’ potential labour income losses and examine changes in poverty and labour income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labour income inequality in most of the LAC countries due to social distancing; however, the observed changes are lower under de facto lockdowns, revealing the potential role of non-compliance as a coping strategy during the lockdowns. Social distancing measures have led to an increase in inequality both between and within countries. Lastly, we show that most of the dispersion in the labour income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational employment structure of the economies.

本文估计了 COVID-19 封锁的第一阶段对 20 个拉丁美洲和加勒比 (LAC) 国家的贫困和劳动收入不平等的潜在分配后果。我们通过考虑个人的远程工作能力以及他们的职业是否受到合法的工作场所关闭或流动限制的影响来估计在锁定下可能保持活跃的个人比例。此外，我们比较了正式（法律上）锁定政策下的股票，假设完全遵守事实上的锁定下的股票，其中存在一定程度的违规行为。然后，我们估计个人潜在的劳动收入损失，并检查贫困和劳动收入不平等的变化。我们发现，由于社会疏远，大多数 LAC 国家的贫困和劳动收入不平等加剧；然而，在事实上的封锁下，观察到的变化较低，这揭示了不合规作为封锁期间应对策略的潜在作用。社会疏离措施导致国家之间和国家内部的不平等加剧。最后，我们表明，各国劳动力收入损失的大部分差异可以由经济体的部门/职业就业结构来解释。