Reducing uncertain outcomes of fishery management actions requires an understanding of how fishers will be affected by policy actions. This requires integrating the local expertise of commercial fishers and seafood processors into management planning to predict how regulatory changes could impact social-ecological systems. Participatory modeling between managers, scientists, and industry can be useful in integrating different perspectives and gaining a more comprehensive understanding of how different scenarios can cause direct and indirect impacts throughout fishery systems. We used group Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping exercises to describe the structure and dynamics of two economically important commercial fishery systems in Alaska, USA: the Bering Sea Pollock Catcher/Processor and Amendment 80 Groundfish fishery. Several components were identified by the fleets that had a relatively high number of links to other components in each system, including chum salmon catch for the pollock fleet and the deck sorting of halibut for the groundfish fleet. After identifying other critical relationships between regulatory, environmental, and operational changes, we developed a survey technique and regression analytical approach to define the shape of these relationships. Our results show both linear and non-linear relationships between bycatch regulations and fishing operations; thus, providing evidence counter to the traditional assumption that the relationships between policy and fishing operations are always linear and constant across variable levels of change. Our novel approach permits for more specific explorations of curvilinear patterns, social tipping points, and asymptotic limits to change, thereby allowing for improved assessments of the effects of regulatory and environmental change on fishing communities.

减少渔业管理行动的不确定结果需要了解渔民将如何受到政策行动的影响。这需要将商业渔民和海产品加工商的当地专业知识整合到管理规划中，以预测监管变化如何影响社会生态系统。管理人员、科学家和行业之间的参与式建模有助于整合不同的观点，并更全面地了解不同情景如何对整个渔业系统造成直接和间接影响。我们使用群体模糊认知映射练习来描述美国阿拉斯加两个具有重要经济意义的商业渔业系统的结构和动态：白令海鳕捕捞器/处理器和修正案 80 底层鱼类渔业。船队确定了几个组成部分，这些组成部分与每个系统中的其他组成部分有相对较多的联系，包括狭鳕船队的鲑鱼捕获和底层鱼类船队的大比目鱼甲板分拣。在确定监管、环境和运营变化之间的其他关键关系后，我们开发了一种调查技术和回归分析方法来定义这些关系的形状。我们的结果显示兼捕法规和捕捞作业之间存在线性和非线性关系；因此，提供了与传统假设相反的证据，即政策和捕捞作业之间的关系在不同的变化水平上始终是线性和恒定的。我们的新方法允许对曲线模式、社会临界点、