Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
Ecology ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-28 , DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3504 Peter A Wilfahrt 1 , Ashley L Asmus 1 , Eric W Seabloom 1 , Jeremiah A Henning 1, 2 , Peter Adler 3 , Carlos A Arnillas 4 , Jonathan D Bakker 5 , Lori Biederman 6 , Lars A Brudvig 7 , Marc Cadotte 8 , Pedro Daleo 9 , Anu Eskelinen 10 , Jennifer Firn 11 , W Stanley Harpole 10, 12, 13 , Yann Hautier 14 , Kevin P Kirkman 15 , Kimberly J Komatsu 16 , Ramesh Laungani 17 , Andrew MacDougall 18 , Rebecca L McCulley 19 , Joslin L Moore 20 , John W Morgan 21 , Brent Mortensen 22 , Raul Ochoa Hueso 23 , Timothy Ohlert 24 , Sally A Power 25 , Jodi Price 26 , Anita C Risch 27 , Martin Schuetz 27 , Lauren Shoemaker 28 , Carly Stevens 29 , Alexander T Strauss 1, 30 , Pedro M Tognetti 31 , Risto Virtanen 32 , Elizabeth T Borer 1
Ecology ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-28 , DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3504 Peter A Wilfahrt 1 , Ashley L Asmus 1 , Eric W Seabloom 1 , Jeremiah A Henning 1, 2 , Peter Adler 3 , Carlos A Arnillas 4 , Jonathan D Bakker 5 , Lori Biederman 6 , Lars A Brudvig 7 , Marc Cadotte 8 , Pedro Daleo 9 , Anu Eskelinen 10 , Jennifer Firn 11 , W Stanley Harpole 10, 12, 13 , Yann Hautier 14 , Kevin P Kirkman 15 , Kimberly J Komatsu 16 , Ramesh Laungani 17 , Andrew MacDougall 18 , Rebecca L McCulley 19 , Joslin L Moore 20 , John W Morgan 21 , Brent Mortensen 22 , Raul Ochoa Hueso 23 , Timothy Ohlert 24 , Sally A Power 25 , Jodi Price 26 , Anita C Risch 27 , Martin Schuetz 27 , Lauren Shoemaker 28 , Carly Stevens 29 , Alexander T Strauss 1, 30 , Pedro M Tognetti 31 , Risto Virtanen 32 , Elizabeth T Borer 1
Affiliation
Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
中文翻译:
时间稀有性比空间稀有性更能预测局部灭绝风险
空间稀有性通常用于预测灭绝风险,但稀有性也可能暂时发生。在全球变化的背景下,也许更相关的是一个物种是社区的核心(持久性)还是短暂的(间歇性存在),短暂的物种通常容易受到减少生态位空间的人类活动的影响。使用来自五大洲 49 个草原的 1,447 种植物物种的 5-12 年数据,我们表明,在实验排除食草动物或添加养分后,当地丰度和环境条件下的物种持久性都是当地灭绝风险的有效预测因素;持久性是比当地丰度更强大的预测指标。虽然扰动增加了低持久性和丰度物种被排除在外的风险,相对于环境条件,短暂但丰富的物种也很可能被排除在受扰动的地块之外。此外,未被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后趋于适度增加丰度。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。没有被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后的丰度趋于适度增加。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。没有被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后的丰度趋于适度增加。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。
更新日期:2021-07-28
中文翻译:
时间稀有性比空间稀有性更能预测局部灭绝风险
空间稀有性通常用于预测灭绝风险,但稀有性也可能暂时发生。在全球变化的背景下,也许更相关的是一个物种是社区的核心(持久性)还是短暂的(间歇性存在),短暂的物种通常容易受到减少生态位空间的人类活动的影响。使用来自五大洲 49 个草原的 1,447 种植物物种的 5-12 年数据,我们表明,在实验排除食草动物或添加养分后,当地丰度和环境条件下的物种持久性都是当地灭绝风险的有效预测因素;持久性是比当地丰度更强大的预测指标。虽然扰动增加了低持久性和丰度物种被排除在外的风险,相对于环境条件,短暂但丰富的物种也很可能被排除在受扰动的地块之外。此外,未被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后趋于适度增加丰度。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。没有被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后的丰度趋于适度增加。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。没有被扰动地块排除的低持久性和低丰度物种在扰动后的丰度趋于适度增加。最后,即使是高丰度的核心物种,其持久性也大幅下降,扰动地块的损失增加,威胁着这些草原的长期稳定性。我们的研究结果表明,除了局部丰度之外,将稀有度的概念扩展到包括时间动态,比任一稀有度轴单独预测的更有效地预测响应环境变化的灭绝风险。