Abstract

Materials of ISI-MIP International Project were used for global simulations of water balance components for the entire Earth surface (except for Antarctica) with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° over a period of 1971−2099 with the use of physically based SWAP model, describing the processes of heat and water exchange between the land surface and the near-surface atmosphere layer, and the daily values of meteorological forcing data simulated by five global climate models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of the four scenarios of climate changes of RCP family (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The results of 20 simulated variants served as the basis for calculations, at the global scale, of climatic values of annual precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for a historical and three projection periods (2006–2036, 2037–2067, and 2068–2099), which were used to estimate the possible changes of the water balance components for each projection period relative to the historical period and to evaluate their uncertainties caused by the use of various GCMs and RCP-scenarios.

中文翻译：

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在可能的气候变化背景下对陆地水平衡成分变化的全球估计

摘要

ISI-MIP 国际项目的材料用于在 1971-2099 年期间使用基于物理的 SWAP 对整个地球表面（南极洲除外）的水平衡分量进行全球模拟，空间分辨率为 0.5°×0.5°模型，描述了地表和近地表大气层之间的热量和水交换过程，以及五个全球气候模型（GCM：GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A）模拟的气象强迫数据的日值-LR、MIROC-ESM-CHEM 和 NorESM1-M）用于 RCP 家族（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0 和 RCP8.5）的四种气候变化情景中的每一种。20 个模拟变量的结果作为在全球范围内计算年降水量、径流、