Probability distributions of initial losses are investigated using a large dataset of catchments throughout Australia. The variability in design flood estimates caused by probability-distributed initial losses and associated uncertainties are investigated. Based on historic data sets in Australia, the Gamma and Beta distributions are found to be suitable for describing initial loss data. It has also been found that the central tendency of probability-distributed initial loss is more important in design flood estimation than the form of the probability density function. Findings from this study have notable implications on the regionalization of initial loss data, which is required for the application of Monte Carlo methods for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments.

中文翻译：

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概率分布损失对使用基于事件的降雨-径流模型的洪水估计的影响

使用整个澳大利亚集水区的大型数据集来研究初始损失的概率分布。研究了由概率分布的初始损失和相关的不确定性引起的设计洪水估计的可变性。根据澳大利亚的历史数据集，发现 Gamma 和 Beta 分布适合描述初始损失数据。还发现概率分布初始损失的集中趋势在设计洪水估计中比概率密度函数的形式更重要。本研究的结果对初始损失数据的区域化具有显着影响，这是在未测量流域中应用蒙特卡罗方法进行设计洪水估计所必需的。