Tax avoidance is one of the most frequent reasons for which companies tend to resort to creative accounting techniques. The purpose of the study is to identify which of the eight-variables from the Beneish influences the most or least the outcome of the final score, as a percent, by developing a statistical model. The sample was selected from the Bucharest Stock Exchange and consists of 66 companies traded on the main market, for the years 2015–2019. The results show that from the total of the eight variables, GMI (Gross Margin Index), AQI (Asset Quality Index), DEPI (Depreciation Index) and TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) are significantly influencing the probability to commit fraud. The developed model is validated with only 10% of the non-fraud companies being mistakenly considered as fraud based on our model and vice versa.

中文翻译：

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财务报表中欺诈风险的统计模型。罗马尼亚公司案例

避税是公司倾向于采用创造性会计技术的最常见原因之一。该研究的目的是通过开发统计模型，确定 Beneish 的八个变量中的哪些对最终分数的影响最大或最小，以百分比表示。样本选自布加勒斯特证券交易所，包括 2015-2019 年在主要市场交易的 66 家公司。结果表明，从8个变量的总和来看，GMI（毛利率指数）、AQI（资产质量指数）、DEPI（折旧指数）和TATA（总应计费用占总资产）显着影响作弊概率。开发的模型经过验证，只有 10% 的非欺诈公司根据我们的模型被误认为是欺诈，反之亦然。