ABSTRACT

In the summer of 2019/20, bushfires of unprecedented scale in south-eastern Australia focused attention on how forest management might have affected their risks and impacts. Some argued that the severity and extent of these fires were made worse by timber harvesting and associated forest management and that harvesting in native forests should cease as a means for reducing fire risk. Little evidence has been presented to support these contentions. This article reviews evidence for the relationship between harvesting and fire extent and severity from these fires. The proportion of forested conservation reserves burnt in these fires was similar to that for public forests where timber harvesting is permitted, and the proportion of forest burnt with different levels of fire severity was similar across tenures and over time since timber harvest. Recent analysis of the areas burnt in 2019/20 indicated that the extent and severity of the fires was determined almost entirely by three years of well-below-average rainfall (leading to dry fuels across all vegetation types), extreme fire weather conditions and local topography and that past timber harvesting had negligible or no impact on fire severity. Three major inquiries into the fires made no recommendations regarding the impact of timber harvesting on fire risk. We argue that policy proposals to mitigate fire risk and impacts should be evidence-based and, to avoid the cognitive bias associated with expert opinions, should integrate the multiple perspectives of traditional Indigenous knowledge, the experience of local and professional fire managers, and the breadth of evidence from bushfire research. Together, these perspectives should inform strategies for reducing bushfire impacts and increasing forest resilience and community safety.

摘要

在 2019/20 夏季，澳大利亚东南部发生了规模空前的丛林大火，人们将注意力集中在森林管理可能如何影响其风险和影响上。一些人认为，木材采伐和相关的森林管理使这些火灾的严重程度和范围变得更糟，应该停止在原生森林中采伐，以减少火灾风险。几乎没有证据支持这些论点。本文回顾了采伐与这些火灾的火灾范围和严重程度之间关系的证据。在这些火灾中烧毁的森林保护区的比例与允许采伐的公共森林的比例相似，并且自木材采伐以来，不同时期和不同时间的火灾严重程度的森林烧毁比例相似。最近对 2019/20 年烧毁区域的分析表明，火灾的范围和严重程度几乎完全取决于三年远低于平均水平的降雨量（导致所有植被类型的燃料干燥）、极端火灾天气条件和当地地形和过去的木材采伐对火灾严重程度的影响可以忽略不计或没有影响。对火灾的三项主要调查没有就木材采伐对火灾风险的影响提出建议。我们认为，减轻火灾风险和影响的政策建议应该以证据为基础，并且为了避免与专家意见相关的认知偏见，应该整合传统土著知识、当地和专业火灾管理人员的经验以及广度的多种观点。来自丛林大火研究的证据。一起，