This study investigates whether expected economic growth is associated with investment in corporate tax planning. We predict that higher expected economic growth increases the net present value of tax planning opportunities and that thus firms’ investment in tax planning will be higher in periods when expectations about economic growth are optimistic. Consistent with expectations, we find that changes in fees for auditor-provided tax services are positively associated with GDP growth forecasts after controlling for known determinants of tax avoidance. Using path analysis, we find that expected macroeconomic growth influences firms’ investment in tax planning directly, rather than indirectly through other investments. Cross-sectional analyses show this association is more pronounced for firms that are financially constrained and those that are more likely to experience a change in tax status. Our study highlights that growth expectations at the macroeconomic level are an important determinant of time-series variation in firm’s investment in corporate tax planning.

本研究调查预期经济增长是否与企业税收筹划投资相关。我们预测较高的预期经济增长会增加税收筹划机会的净现值，因此在经济增长预期乐观的时期，企业对税收筹划的投资将更高。与预期一致，我们发现在控制了已知的避税决定因素后，审计师提供的税务服务费用的变化与 GDP 增长预测呈正相关。使用路径分析，我们发现预期的宏观经济增长直接影响企业的税收筹划投资，而不是通过其他投资间接影响。横断面分析表明，这种关联对于财务受限的公司和更有可能经历税收状况变化的公司更为明显。我们的研究强调，宏观经济层面的增长预期是一个重要的决定因素企业在企业税收筹划中投资的时间序列变化。