Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on US GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.

中文翻译：

---

新闻媒体与 FRED-MD 进行宏观经济预测

使用来自Dow Jones Newswires Archive的 2250 万篇新闻文章的独特数据集，我们与较新的预测文献中使用最广泛的数据集之一，即FRED，进行了深入的实时样本外预测比较研究-MD数据集。以美国 GDP、消费和投资增长为重点，我们的结果表明，新闻数据包含硬经济指标无法捕捉到的信息，而基于新闻的数据对于预测消费发展尤其有用。