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Deterrence and Restraint: Do Joint Military Exercises Escalate Conflict?
Journal of Conflict Resolution ( IF 3.211 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-25 , DOI: 10.1177/00220027211023147
Raymond Kuo 1 , Brian Dylan Blankenship 2
Affiliation  

Multinational military exercises are among the most notable demonstrations of military cooperation and intent. On average, one is initiated every 8.9 days. But it has often been argued that joint military exercises (JMEs) increase the risk of war. Using a relational contracting approach, we claim that formal military alliances mediate the effect of JMEs. Exercises and alliances serve complementary functions: The former allows targeted responses to military provocations by adversaries, while the latter provides institutional constraints on partners and establishes a partnership’s overall strategic limitations. In combination, alliances dampen the conflict escalation effects of exercises, deterring adversaries while simultaneously restraining partners. We test this theory using a two-stage model on directed dyadic data of JMEs from 1973 through 2003. We find that JMEs in general do not escalate conflict, and that JMEs conducted with allies in particular reduce the probability of conflict escalation.



中文翻译:

威慑与克制:联合军演会升级冲突吗?

多国军事演习是最显着的军事合作和意图展示之一。平均每 8.9 天启动一次。但人们经常认为联合军事演习(JME)会增加战争风险。使用关系合同方法,我们声称正式的军事联盟调解了 JMEs 的影响。演习和联盟具有互补功能:前者允许对对手的军事挑衅做出有针对性的反应,而后者对合作伙伴提供制度约束,并建立伙伴关系的整体战略限制。联合起来,联盟可以抑制演习的冲突升级效应,在威慑对手的同时抑制合作伙伴。我们使用两阶段模型对 1973 年至 2003 年 JME 的有向二进数据进行测试。

更新日期:2021-07-26
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