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Measuring the effects of environmental policies on electricity markets risk
Energy Economics ( IF 12.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105470
Andrés Inzunza 1, 2 , Francisco D. Muñoz 3, 4 , Rodrigo Moreno 4, 5, 6
Affiliation  

This paper studies how environmental policies, such as renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and carbon taxes, might contribute to reducing risk exposure in the electricity generation sector. We illustrate this effect by first computing long-term market equilibria of the Chilean generation sector for the year 2035 using a risk-averse planning model, considering uncertainty of hydrological scenarios and fossil fuel prices as well as distinct levels of risk aversion, but assuming no environmental policies in place. We then compare these risk-averse equilibria to generation portfolios obtained by imposing several levels of RPS and carbon taxes in a market with risk-neutral firms, separately. Our results show that the implementation of both policies can provide incentives for investments in portfolios of generation technologies that limit the risk exposure of the system, particularly when high levels of RPS (35%) or high carbon taxes (35 $/tonCO2) are applied. However, we find that in the case of a hydrothermal system, the resulting market equilibria under RPS policies yield expected generation cost and risk levels (i.e. standard deviation of costs) that are more similar to the efficient portfolios determined using a risk-averse planning model than the ones we find under the carbon tax.



中文翻译:

衡量环境政策对电力市场风险的影响

本文研究了环境政策,例如可再生能源组合标准 (RPS) 和碳税,可能如何有助于降低发电行业的风险敞口。我们首先使用风险规避规划模型计算 2035 年智利发电部门的长期市场均衡,考虑到水文情景和化石燃料价格的不确定性以及不同的风险规避水平,但假设没有环境政策到位。然后,我们将这些风险规避均衡与通过在具有风险中性公司的市场中分别征收多个水平的 RPS 和碳税而获得的发电投资组合进行比较。2 ) 应用。然而,我们发现,在热液系统的情况下,RPS 政策下由此产生的市场均衡产生的预期发电成本和风险水平(即成本的标准偏差)更类似于使用风险规避规划模型确定的有效投资组合比我们在碳税下找到的那些。

更新日期:2021-08-31
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