Abstract

A significant number of modern earthquake prediction algorithms are based on general signs of loss of stability by the system, without reference to the physical mechanism behind the development of seismic instability. Considerations have been repeatedly expressed that such an approach is unlikely to lead to a completely satisfactory forecast. New geophysical evidence in favor of a fluid metamorphogenic model of the earthquake mechanism and data on the typical nature of the precursor seismic process are presented. The use of these new data for earthquake prediction is discussed.

中文翻译：

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地震预测：旧期望和新结果

摘要

大量现代地震预测算法是基于系统失去稳定性的一般迹象，而没有参考地震不稳定发展背后的物理机制。人们一再表示，这种方法不太可能导致完全令人满意的预测。提供了支持地震机制的流体变质模型的新地球物理证据和关于前兆地震过程的典型性质的数据。讨论了使用这些新数据进行地震预测。