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Threshold determination and temperature trends analysis of Indian cities for effective implementation of an early warning system
Urban Climate ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100934
Mahaveer Golechha 1 , Priyanka Shah 1 , Dileep Mavalankar 1
Affiliation  

Extreme heat events (EHEs) have been linked to increased mortality rates, rendering them a valuable research topic in both climate and public health. Early warning systems are highly impactful in prevention and management of heat-related illnesses. We aimed to determine the preliminary maximum temperature thresholds for Nagpur and Rajkot city of India by analyzing the meteorological and mortality data to enable the heat-health response system based on the heat wave disaster risk of a particular state and city. We conducted a trend analysis with daily maximum temperature and all-cause mortality data of Nagpur and Rajkot (2003–2017) cities, also city-specific thresholds evaluated for both cities. There was a significant association between all-cause mortality and extreme heat events and it was more profound when temperatures were above 40.1 °C, but V-shaped relationship of mortality-temperature was noted only for Nagpur city. The dose-response relationship between maximum temperatures and deaths alert thresholds to activate heat health response for red alert set at 46 °C and 44 °C for Nagpur and Rajkot city respectively. This study suggests that determining local thresholds is important for developing and implementing scientific early warning systems to prevent heat-related illnesses.



中文翻译:

有效实施预警系统的印度城市阈值确定和温度趋势分析

极端高温事件 (EHE) 与死亡率增加有关,使其成为气候和公共卫生领域的一个有价值的研究课题。预警系统在预防和管理与高温有关的疾病方面具有很大影响。我们旨在通过分析气象和死亡率数据来确定印度那格浦尔和拉杰科特市的初步最高温度阈值,以启用基于特定州和城市的热浪灾害风险的热健康响应系统。我们对那格浦尔和拉杰科特(2003-2017 年)城市的每日最高气温和全因死亡率数据进行了趋势分析,并对这两个城市的特定城市阈值进行了评估。全因死亡率与极端高温事件之间存在显着关联,当温度高于 40.1 °C 时,关联更为显着,但仅在那格浦尔市注意到死亡率与温度的 V 型关系。那格浦尔和拉杰果德市分别设置为 46 °C 和 44 °C 的最高温度和死亡警报阈值之间的剂量反应关系,以激活红色警报的热健康响应。这项研究表明,确定局部阈值对于开发和实施科学预警系统以预防与高温有关的疾病很重要。

更新日期:2021-07-25
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