Despite having offered important hydroclimatic insights, streamflow reconstructions still see limited use in water resources operations, because annual reconstructions are not suitable for decisions at finer time scales. The few attempts toward sub-annual reconstructions have relied on statistical disaggregation, which uses none or little proxy information. Here, we develop a novel framework that optimizes proxy combinations to simultaneously produce seasonal and annual reconstructions. Importantly, the framework ensures that total seasonal flow matches annual flow closely. This mass balance criterion is necessary to avoid misguiding water management decisions, such as the allocation of water rights or dam release decisions. Using the framework, and leveraging a multi-species network of ring width and cellulose O in Southeast Asia, we reconstruct seasonal and annual inflow to Thailand's largest reservoir. The reconstructions are statistically skillful. Furthermore, they preserve the mass balance well: the differences are mostly within 10% of the mean annual flow. As a result, the reconstructions provide more reliable estimates of the seasonal and annual surface water availability. This work is one step closer toward operational usability of streamflow reconstruction in water resources management.

中文翻译：

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具有质量平衡调整的多代理、多季节流重建

尽管提供了重要的水文气候见解，但水流重建在水资源运营中的用途仍然有限，因为年度重建不适合在更精细的时间尺度上进行决策。对次年重建的少数尝试依赖于统计分解，它不使用或很少使用代理信息。在这里，我们开发了一个新颖的框架，可以优化代理组合以同时产生季节性和年度重建。重要的是，该框架确保总季节性流量与年度流量密切匹配。这种质量平衡标准是必要的，以避免误导水管理决策，例如水权分配或大坝泄洪决策。使用该框架，并利用环宽和纤维素的多物种网络O 在东南亚，我们重建了泰国最大水库的季节性和年度流入量。重建在统计上很有技巧。此外，它们很好地保持了质量平衡：差异大多在年平均流量的 10% 以内。因此，重建提供了更可靠的季节性和年度地表水可用性估计。这项工作更接近于水资源管理中水流重建的操作可用性。