This paper discusses the empirical strategy used to test which approximation to journey-to-crime theory is more appropriate for modelling the crime deterrent effect of police stations. Using crime spatial analysis, this paper tests whether monotonic criminal distance decay from police stations or a buffer zone in the vicinity of police stations is the most appropriate way to model criminal behavior. The aim of the paper is to detect fixed patterns of spatial distribution of crime in relation to the location of police stations, independent of other variables. A new high-frequency daily dataset of the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 with reported property crimes (robbery, theft, car robbery and theft) and personal crime (homicide) in the City of Buenos Aires, is used to model the paper's findings. The authors found empirical evidence of a non-random spatial concentration for all crimes. It was also found that the commission of crimes increases exponentially as the distance from the nearest police station increases, until reaching an interval of 500–600 m, at which point, it begins to descend once again. Evidence seems to show that police stations have a deterrent effect on crime.

本文讨论了用于测试哪种犯罪旅程理论的近似更适合模拟警察局的犯罪威慑效果的经验策略。使用犯罪空间分析，本文测试了来自警察局或警察局附近缓冲区的单调犯罪距离衰减是否是对犯罪行为建模的最合适方法。本文的目的是检测与警察局位置相关的犯罪空间分布的固定模式，独立于其他变量。布宜诺斯艾利斯市 2016、2017、2018 和 2019 年报告的财产犯罪（抢劫、盗窃、汽车抢劫和盗窃）和个人犯罪（凶杀）的新高频每日数据集用于对论文的发现。作者发现了所有犯罪的非随机空间集中的经验证据。还发现，随着距离最近的警察局的距离增加，犯罪行为呈指数增长，直到达到500-600 m的间隔，此时又开始下降。证据似乎表明，警察局对犯罪具有威慑作用。