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Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland
Hydrological Processes ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-24 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14322
Krzysztof Raczyński 1 , Jamie Dyer 2
Affiliation  

This paper presents a scheme describing low flow formation processes in areas with different environmental conditions, including the impact of the selection and explanatory power of predictors for a probabilistic model based on the Logit model. The research was carried out using 29 daily streamflow gauges located in the Lublin region of southeastern Poland for the hydrological period 1976–2018. Analysis resulted in two distinct low flow schemes. In the lowland rivers, low flows occur during the warm season and are related to evaporation exceeding precipitation. In the upland rivers, hydrogeological factors related to water levels in the local Cretaceous aquifers determine the occurrence of low flows. This differentiation affects the quality of the predictive models. For lowland rivers, models based on the climatic water balance with a monthly shift have a better fit, while these models used for upland rivers are characterized by an approximately 10% decrease in accuracy. For upland rivers, the combined CtHt models without shifts produce the best model fit. The generalized precision of the Logit models is around 80%–90%.

中文翻译:

模拟波兰东南部异质景观上的低流量

本文提出了一种描述具有不同环境条件的地区的低流量形成过程的方案,包括基于 Logit 模型的概率模型的预测变量的选择和解释力的影响。该研究使用位于波兰东南部卢布林地区 1976-2018 年水文时期的 29 个每日流量测量仪进行。分析产生了两种不同的低流量方案。在低地河流,暖季出现低流量,这与蒸发量超过降水量有关。在高地河流中,与当地白垩纪含水层水位相关的水文地质因素决定了低流量的发生。这种差异会影响预测模型的质量。对于低地河流,基于每月变化的气候水平衡模型具有更好的拟合,而这些用于高地河流的模型的特点是准确度降低了大约 10%。对于高地河流,联合没有移位的C t H t模型产生最佳模型拟合。Logit 模型的广义精度约为 80%–90%。
更新日期:2021-08-12
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