The decline in ocean primary production is one of the most alarming consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This decline could indeed lead to a decrease in marine biomass and fish catch, as highlighted by recent policy-relevant reports. Because of computational constraints, current Earth system models used to project ocean primary production under global warming scenarios have to parameterize flows occurring below the resolution of their computational grid (typically 1^∘). To overcome these computational constraints, we use an ocean biogeochemical model in an idealized configuration representing a mid-latitude double-gyre circulation and perform global warming simulations under an increasing horizontal resolution (from 1 to $\mathrm{1}/\mathrm{27}$^∘) and under a large range of parameter values for the eddy parameterization employed in the coarse-resolution configuration. In line with projections from Earth system models, all our simulations project a marked decline in net primary production in response to the global warming forcing. Whereas this decline is only weakly sensitive to the eddy parameters in the eddy-parameterized coarse 1^∘ resolution simulations, the simulated decline in primary production in the subpolar gyre is halved at the finest eddy-resolving resolution (−12 % at 1/27^∘ vs. −26 % at 1^∘) at the end of the 70-year-long global warming simulations. This difference stems from the high sensitivity of the sub-surface nutrient transport to model resolution. Although being only one piece of a much broader and more complicated response of the ocean to climate change, our results call for improved representation of the role of eddies in nutrient transport below the seasonal mixed layer to better constrain the future evolution of marine biomass and fish catch potential.

中文翻译：

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在全球变暖的涡旋分辨模拟中，海洋初级生产力下降了一半

海洋初级生产的下降是人为气候变化最令人担忧的后果之一。正如最近的政策相关报告所强调的那样，这种下降确实可能导致海洋生物量和鱼类捕捞量的减少。由于计算限制，当前用于预测全球变暖情景下海洋初级生产的地球系统模型必须对低于其计算网格分辨率（通常为 1 ^∘）的流量进行参数化。为了克服这些计算限制，我们在代表中纬度双环流的理想化配置中使用海洋生物地球化学模型，并在不断增加的水平分辨率（从 1 到$\mathrm{1}/\mathrm{27}$^∘ ) 以及在粗分辨率配置中采用的涡流参数化的大范围参数值下。与地球系统模型的预测一致，我们所有的模拟都预测净初级生产因全球变暖强迫而显着下降。虽然这种下降对涡参数化粗 1 ^∘分辨率模拟中的涡参数仅微弱敏感，但模拟的副极地环流初级生产下降在最精细的涡分辨率下减半（ -12  % at 1/27 ^∘与-26  % 在 1 ^∘) 在长达 70 年的全球变暖模拟结束时。这种差异源于次表面养分传输对模型分辨率的高敏感性。尽管这只是海洋对气候变化的更广泛和更复杂反应的一部分，但我们的研究结果要求改进涡流在季节性混合层以下养分运输中的作用的表征，以更好地限制海洋生物量和鱼类的未来进化抓住潜力。