Ecosystem restoration and, in particular, peatland restoration, are considered a promising greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy to move towards net zero emissions. To remain within acceptable limits for projected warming scenarios, inaction with respect to GHG mitigation in the short term implies a need for even larger removals of GHGs in the longer term, which can be conceptualized as a ‘mitigation debt’. This paper explores the economic implications of delaying GHG mitigation through ecosystem restoration using data of a large survey (N = 1377) that included a choice experiment to elicit the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for peatland restoration in Scotland, UK. The valuation specifically considers the interaction between the timing of restoration action and long-term ecosystem resilience. We find that respondents have a substantial WTP for peatland restoration. Importantly, we find considerable benefits for early restoration action (up to £191 million annually in our case study), which is linked to an increased resilience of peatlands under future climate change. This demonstrates that delaying restoration and thus accumulating a mitigation debt has an important opportunity cost that substantially decreases the related economic benefits. Attitudes towards climate change and climate change beliefs are found to explain variation in the public’s WTP. Our research strengthens the economic argument for not delaying climate change mitigation through ecosystem restoration, demonstrating that the mitigation debt also translates into a welfare loss. To fully realise the potential benefits associated with immediate mitigation using peatland restoration, however, more needs to be understood about the mechanisms that facilitate large-scale implementation in practice.

生态系统恢复，尤其是泥炭地恢复，被认为是朝着净零排放迈进的有前景的温室气体 (GHG) 减排战略。为了在预计的变暖情景下保持在可接受的范围内，在短期内不采取温室气体减排行动意味着需要在更长期内更大规模地清除温室气体，这可以被概念化为“减排债务”。本文使用大型调查 (N = 1377) 的数据探讨了通过生态系统恢复延迟温室气体减排的经济影响，其中包括一项选择实验，以激发公众对英国苏格兰泥炭地恢复的支付意愿 (WTP)。估值特别考虑了恢复行动的时间和长期生态系统恢复力之间的相互作用。我们发现受访者对泥炭地恢复有很大的支付意愿。重要的是，我们发现早期恢复行动可带来可观的收益（在我们的案例研究中，每年高达 1.91 亿英镑），这与泥炭地在未来气候变化下的复原力增强有关。这表明延迟恢复并因此积累缓解债务具有重要的机会成本，会大大降低相关的经济利益。发现对气候变化的态度和气候变化信念可以解释公众支付意愿的变化。我们的研究加强了不通过生态系统恢复来延缓气候变化减缓的经济论点，证明减缓债务也转化为福利损失。