While scenarios are used extensively for communication about climate change mitigation, little is known about the interpretation of these scenarios by citizens. We conducted a cross-country empirical evaluation of scenario visualizations for global mitigation, using online surveys in Germany (N = 379), Poland (N = 223), and France (N = 225). Each respondent received visualizations of the required changes in global carbon dioxide emissions and composition of electricity supply (fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable sources) for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. We evaluated the effects of respondents’ demographics, prior beliefs, numeracy, and graph literacy on the reading accuracy and knowledge gains from the visualizations. We also included an experimental between-groups design on visualization format, where four groups received different graph formats (steep or gradual graphs with depictions of uncertainty ranges or scenario ensembles) and the fifth group received a table. Results showed that higher education level, numeracy, and graph literacy increased reading accuracy in all countries, while age reduced them. Respondents with prior beliefs about climate change mitigation that matched the information in the visualizations had also higher reading accuracy and knowledge gains. While the effects of different visualization formats were comparatively minor, customizing formats according to demographic and country differences was used to reduce adverse effects from these differences. These results emphasize the need to design visualizations that match characteristics of the intended audience and could inform better communication of climate change mitigation scenarios to non-expert audience.

虽然情景被广泛用于关于减缓气候变化的交流，但公民对这些情景的解释知之甚少。我们使用德国（N = 379）、波兰（N = 223）和法国（N = 225）的在线调查，对全球减缓的情景可视化进行了跨国实证评估。每个受访者都收到了全球二氧化碳排放和电力供应（化石燃料、核能和可再生能源）组成所需变化的可视化，以将全球变暖限制在 1.5 °C。我们评估了受访者的人口统计学、先验信念、计算能力和图形素养对阅读准确性和可视化知识获取的影响。我们还包括一个关于可视化格式的实验性组间设计，其中四组收到不同的图表格式（陡峭或渐变图表，描绘了不确定性范围或场景集合），第五组收到了一张表格。结果表明，在所有国家，高等教育水平、计算能力和图形素养都提高了阅读准确率，而年龄则降低了这些准确率。与可视化信息相匹配的先前关于减缓气候变化的信念的受访者也具有更高的阅读准确性和知识增益。虽然不同可视化格式的影响相对较小，但根据人口和国家差异定制格式被用来减少这些差异的不利影响 结果表明，在所有国家，高等教育水平、计算能力和图形素养都提高了阅读准确率，而年龄则降低了这些准确率。与可视化信息相匹配的先前关于减缓气候变化的信念的受访者也具有更高的阅读准确性和知识增益。虽然不同可视化格式的影响相对较小，但根据人口和国家差异定制格式被用来减少这些差异的不利影响 结果表明，在所有国家，高等教育水平、计算能力和图形素养都提高了阅读准确率，而年龄则降低了这些准确率。与可视化信息相匹配的先前关于减缓气候变化的信念的受访者也具有更高的阅读准确性和知识增益。虽然不同可视化格式的影响相对较小，但根据人口和国家差异定制格式被用来减少这些差异的不利影响. 这些结果强调了设计与目标受众特征相匹配的可视化的必要性，并可以为非专家受众更好地传达缓解气候变化的情景提供信息。