We study disappointment and platform exit among new bidders in an online auction marketplace. In particular, we study a hybrid auction format with a “Buy-It-Now” option, which, when executed, will abruptly end the auction and cancel any standing bids. When this happens, if the formerly leading bidder is new to the platform, then they are 6 percentage points more likely to exit the marketplace for every additional day they spent in the lead. This is rationalized by disappointment-averse bidders with outside options and rational expectations about the likelihood of winning. Our explanation is validated by three ancillary predictions: when expectations are lowered by higher competing bids, there is no effect; sensitivity of exit is declining in prior experience; and, for bidders who do not exit, time in the lead during the first experience predicts a subsequent preference for fixed-price, rather than auction, listings.

中文翻译：

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期望、失望和退出：来自在线市场的参考点形成的证据

我们研究了在线拍卖市场中新竞标者的失望和平台退出。特别是，我们研究了一种带有“立即购买”选项的混合拍卖格式，该选项在执行时将突然结束拍卖并取消任何长期出价。发生这种情况时，如果以前的主要投标人是该平台的新手，那么他们在领先的每一天中退出市场的可能性就会增加 6 个百分点。这被厌恶失望的投标人合理化，他们有外部选择和对获胜可能性的理性预期。我们的解释得到了三个辅助预测的验证：当更高的竞争投标降低预期时，没有效果；根据以往的经验，退出的敏感性正在下降；并且，对于不退出的投标人，