This paper examines the geographic factors that are associated with the spread of COVID-19 during the first wave in Sweden. We focus particularly on the role of place-based factors versus factors associated with the spread or diffusion of COVID-19 across places. Sweden is a useful case study to examine the interplay of these factors because it did not impose mandatory lockdowns and because there were essentially no regional differences in the pandemic policies or strategies during the first wave of COVID-19. We examine the role of place-based factors like density, age structures and different socioeconomic factors on the geographic variation of COVID-19 cases and on deaths, across both municipalities and neighborhoods. Our findings show that factors associated with diffusion matter more than place-based factors in the geographic incidence of COVID-19 in Sweden. The most significant factor of all is proximity to places with higher levels of infections. COVID-19 is also higher in places that were hit earliest in the outbreak. Of place-based factors, the geographic variation in COVID-19 is most significantly related to the presence of high-risk nursing homes, and only modestly associated with factors like density, population size, income and other socioeconomic characteristics of places.

本文研究了与瑞典第一波 COVID-19 传播相关的地理因素。我们特别关注基于地点的因素与与 COVID-19 跨地区传播或扩散相关的因素的作用。瑞典是检验这些因素相互作用的有用案例研究，因为它没有强制实施封锁，而且在第一波 COVID-19 期间，大流行政策或战略基本上没有区域差异。我们研究了基于地点的因素（如密度、年龄结构和不同的社会经济因素）对城市和社区中 COVID-19 病例的地理差异和死亡人数的作用。我们的研究结果表明，在瑞典 COVID-19 的地理发病率中，与扩散相关的因素比基于地点的因素更重要。最重要的因素是靠近感染率较高的地方。在爆发最早的地方，COVID-19 的发病率也较高。在基于地点的因素中，COVID-19 的地理差异与高风险疗养院的存在最显着相关，并且仅与密度、人口规模、收入和地方的其他社会经济特征等因素适度相关。