The aim of the article is to identify possible “follower” behaviour; it means to reveal countries following the average military burden of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. To analyse the relationship between military expenditure of NATO member states and selected socio-economic variables (average military burden of NATO member states, gross domestic product, government expenditure (non-military), share of trade balance of gross domestic product and population), the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model has been used. The short-term results demonstrate follower behaviour, especially in the new NATO member states (effort to fulfil the commitment to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defence). The long-term results have revealed a positive relationship between military expenditures and the variable describing the average military burden of NATO member states in the traditional and also new NATO member states. A positive relationship between military expenditure and gross domestic product has also been observed in the majority of evaluated countries in the long-term model. The public good effect has been determined in six member states only, and the crowding out effect in five member states. A positive effect of the balance of trade on military expenditure has been observed in two countries only.

中文翻译：

---

北约国家军事开支的实证分析

这篇文章的目的是确定可能的“追随者”行为；这意味着按照北大西洋公约组织（NATO）成员国的平均军事负担来揭示国家。分析北约成员国的军费开支与选定的社会经济变量（北约成员国的平均军事负担、国内生产总值、政府支出（非军事）、国内生产总值和人口贸易平衡份额）之间的关系，已使用自回归分布式滞后模型。短期结果表明了追随者的行为，尤其是在新的北约成员国（努力履行将国内生产总值的 2% 用于国防的承诺）。长期结果表明，军事支出与描述北约传统成员国和新北约成员国平均军事负担的变量之间存在正相关关系。在长期模型中，大多数接受评估的国家也观察到军费开支与国内生产总值之间存在正相关关系。仅在六个成员国确定了公共物品效应，在五个成员国确定了挤出效应。仅在两个国家观察到贸易差额对军费开支的积极影响。在长期模型中，大多数接受评估的国家也观察到军费开支与国内生产总值之间存在正相关关系。仅在六个成员国确定了公共物品效应，在五个成员国确定了挤出效应。仅在两个国家观察到贸易差额对军费开支的积极影响。在长期模型中，大多数接受评估的国家也观察到军费开支与国内生产总值之间存在正相关关系。仅在六个成员国确定了公共物品效应，在五个成员国确定了挤出效应。仅在两个国家观察到贸易差额对军费开支的积极影响。