Abstract

In this paper, we have analyzed how the change in the solar activity is able to affect the IRI-2016 outcomes for different latitudes. We have compared the IRI-2016 model predictions with F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) data derived from the low (Manila), middle (Rome and Kiev) and high (Sodankyla) latitude ionosonde stations during high (1980) and low (1986) solar activity periods. In order to test the performance of IRI-2016, we have calculated the root mean square errors (RMSE) during both low and high solar activity periods. The results show that the deviation between the IRI-2016 predictions and the foF2 measurements are the largest for high solar activity period and this deviation varies depending on the seasons, latitudes, and local time. The IRI-2016 model predictions during low solar activity period usually provide better agreement with the observations at all latitudes. The IRI-2016 performance during high solar activity period changes considerably depending on the seasons and local time at low and high latitudes. During high solar activity period, the discrepancy in IRI-2016 predictions at low and high latitudes is found to be larger and more significant than that at mid-latitude region, particularly for winter and equinox seasons. The results show that the last version of the IRI model is not sufficient to properly represent the real conditions of high solar activity and the IRI-2016 model still needs to significant improvements particularly in the low and high latitude regions taking the impacts of solar maximum year into account.

中文翻译：

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foF2 测量值与 IRI-2016 模型预测在低太阳活动和高太阳活动期间不同纬度的比较

摘要

在本文中，我们分析了太阳活动的变化如何影响不同纬度的 IRI-2016 结果。我们将 IRI-2016 模型预测与F 2 层临界频率 ( foF 2) 数据进行了比较，这些数据来自高（1980 年）和低（1980 年）和低（1980 1986) 太阳活动期。为了测试 IRI-2016 的性能，我们计算了低太阳活动期和高太阳活动期的均方根误差 (RMSE)。结果表明，IRI-2016 预测与 fo F之间的偏差2 测量值是高太阳活动期最大的测量值，该偏差因季节、纬度和当地时间而异。IRI-2016 模型在低太阳活动期间的预测通常与所有纬度的观测结果更加吻合。IRI-2016 在高太阳活动期间的表现根据季节和低纬度和高纬度的当地时间而发生很大变化。在高太阳活动期，IRI-2016预测在低纬度和高纬度地区的差异比中纬度地区更大，更显着，尤其是在冬季和春分季节。