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A Suite of Alternative Ground‐Motion Models (GMMs) for Israel
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ( IF 3 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-01 , DOI: 10.1785/0120210003
Soumya Kanti Maiti 1 , Gony Yagoda-Biran 2 , Ronnie Kamai 1
Affiliation  

Models for estimating earthquake ground motions are a key component in seismic hazard analysis. In data‐rich regions, these models are mostly empirical, relying on the ever‐increasing ground‐motion databases. However, in areas in which strong‐motion data are scarce, other approaches for ground‐motion estimates are sought, including, but not limited to, the use of simulations to replace empirical data. In Israel, despite a clear seismic hazard posed by the active plate boundary on its eastern border, the instrumental record is sparse and poor, leading to the use of global models for hazard estimation in the building code and all other engineering applications. In this study, we develop a suite of alternative ground‐motion models for Israel, based on an empirical database from Israel as well as on four data‐calibrated synthetic databases. Two host models are used to constrain model behavior, such that the epistemic uncertainty is captured and characterized. Despite the lack of empirical data at large magnitudes and short distances, constraints based on the host models or on the physical grounds provided by simulations ensure these models are appropriate for engineering applications. The models presented herein are cast in terms of the Fourier amplitude spectra, which is a linear, physical representation of ground motions. The models are suitable for shallow crustal earthquakes; they include an estimate of the median and the aleatory variability, and are applicable in the magnitude range of 3–8 and distance range of 1–300 km.

中文翻译:

一套适用于以色列的替代地面运动模型 (GMM)

估计地震地面运动的模型是地震危险性分析的关键组成部分。在数据丰富的地区,这些模型大多是经验性的,依赖于不断增加的地面运动数据库。然而,在强运动数据稀缺的地区,需要寻找其他地面运动估计方法,包括但不限于使用模拟来代替经验数据。在以色列,尽管其东部边界的活动板块边界存在明显的地震危险,但仪器记录稀少且差,导致在建筑规范和所有其他工程应用中使用全球模型进行危险估计。在这项研究中,我们基于来自以色列的经验数据库以及四个数据校准的合成数据库,为以色列开发了一套替代地面运动模型。两个宿主模型用于约束模型行为,以便捕获和表征认知不确定性。尽管缺乏大规模和短距离的经验数据,但基于宿主模型或模拟提供的物理基础的约束确保这些模型适用于工程应用。此处介绍的模型是根据傅立叶振幅谱生成的,它是地面运动的线性物理表示。该模型适用于浅层地壳地震;它们包括对中值和随机变异的估计,适用于 3-8 级范围和 1-300 公里的距离范围。尽管缺乏大规模和短距离的经验数据,但基于宿主模型或模拟提供的物理基础的约束确保这些模型适用于工程应用。此处介绍的模型是根据傅立叶振幅谱生成的,它是地面运动的线性物理表示。该模型适用于浅层地壳地震;它们包括对中值和随机变异的估计,适用于 3-8 级和 1-300 公里的距离范围。尽管缺乏大规模和短距离的经验数据,但基于宿主模型或模拟提供的物理基础的约束确保这些模型适用于工程应用。此处介绍的模型是根据傅立叶振幅谱生成的,它是地面运动的线性物理表示。该模型适用于浅层地壳地震;它们包括对中值和随机变异的估计,适用于 3-8 级范围和 1-300 公里的距离范围。地面运动的物理表示。该模型适用于浅层地壳地震;它们包括对中值和随机变异的估计,适用于 3-8 级范围和 1-300 公里的距离范围。地面运动的物理表示。该模型适用于浅层地壳地震;它们包括对中值和随机变异的估计,适用于 3-8 级范围和 1-300 公里的距离范围。
更新日期:2021-07-23
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