Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011–2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor in Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043–1171, 2011) display—on average—higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. This result is driven by workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks and it is concentrated in high and medium–low skill occupations. In addition, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors—with higher risk in manufacturing and construction—confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities. Finally, by exploring the gender dimension, we find that that being in a routine-intensive occupation increases unemployment risk for male workers only.

依靠一个独特的纵向综合数据库，该数据库提供关于劳动力市场转型（关于 2011-2017 年期间）和职业任务特征（例如日常任务强度）的微观信息，本文为意大利失业风险的决定因素提供了新的证据。我们发现从事常规密集型职业的工人（用 Acemoglu 和 Autor 在 Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043–1171, 2011 中提出的 RTI 衡量）平均而言比其他劳动力显示出更高的失业风险。这一结果是由从事承担大部分常规认知任务的职业的工人推动的，它集中在高、中低技能职业。此外，失业风险的分布及其与日常任务强度的关系因行业而异——制造业和建筑业的风险更高——证实了行业层面经济、技术和制度异质性的重要性。最后，通过探索性别维度，我们发现从事常规密集型职业只会增加男性工人的失业风险。