This paper explores the changing relationship between current household repayment capacity and mortgage default during crisis and non-crisis periods in Ireland. We measure repayment capacity through changes in the current debt-service to income ratio to directly capture the affordability shock channel. We find that deteriorations in current debt servicing capacity have a positive and increasing effect on default which is dependent on the level of indebtedness or absorptive capacity. We find that the relationship between deteriorations in repayment capacity and default are worsened in crisis times due to the presence of negative equity and liquidity constraints in these periods.

本文探讨了爱尔兰危机和非危机时期当前家庭还款能力与抵押贷款违约之间的变化关系。我们通过当前偿债与收入比率的变化来衡量偿债能力，以直接捕捉负担能力冲击渠道。我们发现当前偿债能力的恶化对违约有积极且不断增加的影响，这取决于债务水平或吸收能力。我们发现，由于在这些时期存在负资产和流动性约束，还款能力恶化与违约之间的关系在危机时期恶化。