The sudden outburst of coal and gas is a complex and dynamic incident in the underground coal mines, resulting in the release of thousands of tons of coal and large amounts of gas into the working face within a short time. Due to a rise in the number of exploitations and the depth of extractions, the intensity, and frequency of explosions have increased in recent years. Consequently, these explosions have endangered miners’ health and safety, brought about equipment loss and seriously affected coal production. To overcome these obstacles, the first step is to predict the occurrence of such incidents in the coal mines. There are a lot of factors playing a part in the sudden outburst of coal and gas, which can be categorized into natural and operational parameters, each of which has a different role. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to predict the possibility of gas outburst in coal seams. For this purpose, ten parameters are considered as the main variables influencing the outburst of coal and gas. To study the interrelation between these determining parameters as well as the uncertainty of the effect of one parameter on another, a fuzzy interaction matrix based on Fuzzy Rock Engineering System (FRES) has been employed. To evaluate the capability and efficiency of the proposed classification system, the C1 coal seam of Tabas coal mine is selected, and the proposed index is used to investigate the potential risk of the outburst in this mine. Index as mentioned earlier could be utilized as a basis through which one can decide on the possibility of the outburst of coal and gas in coal mines to reduce the risks of this incident.

煤和瓦斯的突然突出是煤矿井下复杂的动态事件，导致在短时间内向工作面释放数千吨煤和大量瓦斯。近年来，由于开采次数和开采深度的增加，爆炸的强度和频率都有所增加。因此，这些爆炸危及矿工的健康和安全，造成设备损失，严重影响煤炭生产。为了克服这些障碍，第一步是预测煤矿中此类事件的发生。煤和瓦斯突然爆发的影响因素很多，可以分为自然参数和操作参数，每个参数都有不同的作用。在本文中，提出了一种预测煤层瓦斯突出可能性的新方法。为此，考虑了 10 个参数作为影响煤和瓦斯突出的主要变量。为了研究这些确定参数之间的相互关系以及一个参数对另一个参数影响的不确定性，采用了基于模糊岩石工程系统 (FRES) 的模糊交互矩阵。为评价所提出的分级系统的能力和效率，选取了塔巴斯煤矿的C1煤层，并利用所提出的指标对该矿的突出潜在风险进行了调查。前面提到的指标可以作为判断煤矿发生煤、瓦斯突出的可能性的依据，以降低此次事故的风险。