当前位置: X-MOL 学术Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on extreme precipitation over the western Maritime Continent and Southeast Asia
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-22 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.4136
Nicolas A. Da Silva 1 , Adrian J. Matthews 2
Affiliation  

The western Maritime Continent (MC) and Southeast Asia lie at the heart of the largest area of high precipitation on Earth. Extreme precipitation is one of the major high-impact weather events to affect the population of over 500 million in this region. The deep convection associated with this extreme precipitation is difficult to forecast, even with modern high-resolution numerical weather prediction with explicit convection. However, larger-scale organised convective systems, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), can be skilfully predicted to 3–5 weeks lead time. The MJO has a well-known precipitation signal, and it is likely that it also modulates extreme precipitation. Here, the extreme precipitation signal of the MJO is analysed in detail for the western MC and Southeast Asia using 19 years of high-resolution Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) data. The probability of experiencing extreme precipitation increases robustly by a factor of two, and decreases by a factor of half, dependent on location and the phase of the MJO. The spatial pattern of these changes in extreme precipitation does not describe a smooth eastward propagation, but shows rapid variation over short distances, tied to the complex distribution of land and sea within the archipelago. There is also a seasonal dependence of this MJO modulation in some locations. A more detailed analysis of the effect of the MJO on extreme precipitation is presented for the major cities in the region. Extreme precipitation days over the MC are generally linked with an amplification of the diurnal cycle. However, although an active MJO increases the frequency of extreme precipitation days and therefore an amplified diurnal cycle, there was no further amplification of the diurnal cycle in the active MJO, compared with extreme precipitation days during non-active MJO periods.

中文翻译:

马登-朱利安涛动对西部海洋大陆和东南亚极端降水的影响

西部海洋大陆 (MC) 和东南亚位于地球上最大的强降水区的中心。极端降水是影响该地区 5 亿多人口的主要高影响天气事件之一。与这种极端降水相关的深层对流很难预测,即使使用具有显式对流的现代高分辨率数值天气预报也是如此。然而,更大规模的有组织的对流系统,例如马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO),可以巧妙地预测为 3-5 周的提前期。MJO 有一个众所周知的降水信号,它很可能也调制了极端降水。这里,使用 19 年的高分辨率综合多卫星检索全球降水测量 (GPM IMERG) 数据详细分析了 MJO 西部和东南亚的极端降水信号。根据 MJO 的位置​​和相位,经历极端降水的概率强劲增加两倍,减少一半。极端降水的这些变化的空间模式并不能描述平稳的向东传播,而是在短距离内显示出快速变化,这与群岛内陆地和海洋的复杂分布有关。在某些位置,这种 MJO 调制还具有季节性依赖性。对该地区主要城市的 MJO 对极端降水的影响进行了更详细的分析。MC 上的极端降水日通常与昼夜循环的放大有关。然而,尽管活跃的 MJO 增加了极端降水日的频率,从而扩大了昼夜循环,但与非活跃 MJO 期间的极端降水日相比,活跃的 MJO 中的昼夜循环没有进一步放大。
更新日期:2021-09-06
down
wechat
bug