Have financial businesses changed their behaviour in the aftermath of global financial crisis? We address this question by introducing a new and more parsimonious method to quantify the level of financial misconduct and apply this to financial offences between 2004 and 2016. This exercise allows us to investigate whether Capture-Recapture methods can be deployed to handle problems of partial observability and how they compare to previous methods set out to achieve the same goal. In our two stage approach, first, we estimate the rate at which offending businesses are detected, then we look at how the number of detected offenders changed after 2010, and use these two layers of information to make inferences on the deterrent effect of financial regulation. Our results offer evidence that a drop in the number of detected offences post-global financial crisis was driven largely by improved deterrence.

金融企业在全球金融危机之后是否改变了行为？我们通过引入一种新的更简洁的方法来量化金融不当行为的程度并将其应用于 2004 年至 2016 年期间的金融犯罪来解决这个问题。这项练习使我们能够调查是否可以部署捕获-重新捕获方法来处理部分可观察性问题以及它们与以前为实现相同目标而制定的方法相比如何。在我们的两阶段方法中，首先我们估计违规企业被发现的比率，然后我们观察 2010 年之后被发现的违规者的数量是如何变化的，并利用这两层信息来推断金融监管的威慑作用.