Abstract

We present a country-specific analysis on the effect of tourism on the economic growth of five small Pacific Island Countries (PICs) – Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. The results show tourism development is growth-enhancing for all five countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is growth-enhancing for Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, and in the short run, a delayed negative association for Fiji and Vanuatu is found. Remittances are growth-retarding for Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, with a short-run delayed positive association for Fiji, Tonga and Samoa. Financial development is growth-retarding for Solomon Islands and Tonga, with a short-run positive association for Fiji and Samoa. While the results underscore the huge importance of tourism in generating growth and FDI in the Pacific, given the ongoing adverse effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, PICs will have to focus on alternative sectors to progress economic activities. Policy suggestions are discussed along these lines.

摘要

我们针对旅游业对五个太平洋小岛国（PIC）——斐济、萨摩亚、所罗门群岛、汤加和瓦努阿图——经济增长的影响进行了国别分析。结果显示，旅游业的发展促进了所有五个国家的增长。外国直接投资 (FDI) 对斐济、萨摩亚、所罗门群岛和瓦努阿图有促进增长的作用，但在短期内，斐济和瓦努阿图会出现延迟的负相关关系。汇款会阻碍斐济、萨摩亚和汤加的增长，而对斐济、汤加和萨摩亚则存在短期延迟的正相关关系。所罗门群岛和汤加的金融发展阻碍了增长，而斐济和萨摩亚的金融发展则在短期内呈正相关。虽然结果强调了旅游业在促进太平洋地区经济增长和外国直接投资方面的巨大重要性，鉴于 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行的持续不利影响，太平洋岛国必须将重点放在替代部门以推动经济活动。政策建议是按照这些思路进行讨论的。