Polar motion is the movement of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, reflecting the influence of the material exchange and mass redistribution of each layer of the Earth on the Earth's rotation axis. To better analyze the temporally varying characteristics of polar motion, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was used to analyze the EOP 14 C04 series released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS) from 1962 to 2020, and the amplitude of the Chandler wobbles were found to fluctuate between 20 and 200 mas and decrease significantly over the last 20 years. The amplitude of annual oscillation fluctuated between 60 and 120 mas, and the long-term trend was 3.72 mas/year, moving towards N56.79 °W. To improve prediction of polar motion, the MSSA method combining linear model and autoregressive moving average model was used to predict polar motion with ahead 1 year, repeatedly. Comparing to predictions of IERS Bulletin A, the results show that the proposed method can effectively predict polar motion, and the improvement rates of polar motion prediction for 365 days into the future were approximately 50% on average.

极地运动是地球自转轴相对地壳的运动，反映了地球各层物质交换和质量重新分布对地球自转轴的影响。为了更好地分析极地运动的时变特征，采用多通道奇异谱分析（MSSA）分析了国际地球自转和参考系统服务（IERS）1962-2020年发布的EOP 14 C04系列，其振幅发现 Chandler 摆动的 20 到 200 mas 之间波动，并在过去 20 年中显着下降。年振荡幅度在60~120 mas之间波动，长期趋势为3.72 mas/年，向N56.79°W移动。为了改进极地运动的预测，采用线性模型和自回归移动平均模型相结合的MSSA方法，重复预测未来1年的极地运动。与IERS Bulletin A的预测相比，结果表明该方法能有效预测极移，未来365天极移预测的改进率平均约为50%。