Land management to increase food production while conserving the environment and associated ecosystem services (ESs) is one of the major development and research challenges of the 21st Century. Any land-use practice or change to obtain a particular ecosystem service affects the other ES positively or negatively. The dynamics of these changes is more marked in biodiversity hotspot areas like UNESCO registered Yayo coffee forest biosphere reserve in southwestern Ethiopia. We used a time series InVEST modeling framework to estimate six ESs and analyze their spatial and temporal dynamics due to land-use/cover change over the last 31 years. Pearson correlation coefficients and k-mean clustering were employed to analyze tradeoffs/synergies and to cluster ESs supply spatially. The analysis also considers land-use change impact in the three management zones (core, transition and buffer) of the Yayo biosphere area. The production efficient frontier is used to identify the optimal combination of ESs and to suggest where an increase of one ES is possible without decreasing the others. Mostly, the highest change is observed in the transition zone followed by buffer zones. Positive correlation (synergies) are observed between regulating ecosystem services. Negative correlations (tradeoffs) are observed between provision ecosystem services. The clustering analysis shows that the spatial ESs can be divided in two clusters (bundle): cluster 1 with “High regulating ESs” that can be characterized by core zone and some forest patches in the central part of the biosphere reserve, and cluster 2 with “High provisioning ESs areas'' that can be characterized by cultivated lands at transition and buffer zones. The result shows that the existing ES pairs are far from the Pareto efficient combination(s), confirming that landscape optimization for ES bundles are rarely possible on the ground due to many reasons and indicating the need for well thought land restoration strategies and land management practices that are forest type and context specific.

在保护环境和相关生态系统服务 (ES) 的同时增加粮食产量的土地管理是 21 世纪的主要发展和研究挑战之一。为获得特定生态系统服务而进行的任何土地利用实践或改变都会对其他生态系统产生积极或消极的影响。这些变化的动态在生物多样性热点地区更为明显，例如联合国教科文组织在埃塞俄比亚西南部注册的 Yayo 咖啡森林生物圈保护区。我们使用时间序列 InVEST 建模框架来估计六个 ES 并分析它们在过去 31 年中由于土地利用/覆盖变化而导致的空间和时间动态。使用 Pearson 相关系数和 k 均值聚类来分析权衡/协同作用并在空间上对 ES 供应进行聚类。分析还考虑了 Yayo 生物圈区域三个管理区（核心区、过渡区和缓冲区）的土地利用变化影响。生产效率边界用于确定 ES 的最佳组合，并建议可以增加一个 ES 而不会减少其他 ES。大多数情况下，在过渡区中观察到的变化最大，其次是缓冲区。在调节生态系统服务之间观察到正相关（协同作用）。在提供生态系统服务之间观察到负相关（权衡）。聚类分析表明，空间 ESs 可以分为两个簇（束）：簇 1 具有“高调节 ESs”，可以以核心区和生物圈保护区中心部分的一些森林斑块为特征，簇 2 具有“高配置 ES 区域” ' 可以以过渡区和缓冲区的耕地为特征。结果表明，现有的 ES 对与帕累托有效组合相去甚远，证实了由于多种原因，ES 束的景观优化在地面上几乎不可能，并表明需要深思熟虑的土地恢复策略和土地管理实践是特定于森林类型和上下文的。