Conservation breeding management aims to reduce inbreeding and maximize the retention of genetic diversity in endangered populations. However, breeding management of wild populations is still rare, and there is a need for approaches that provide data-driven evidence of the likelihood of success of alternative in situ strategies. Here, we provide an analytical framework that uses in silico simulations to evaluate, for real wild populations, (i) the degree of population-level inbreeding avoidance, (ii) the genetic quality of mating pairs, and (iii) the potential genetic benefits of implementing two breeding management strategies. The proposed strategies aim to improve the genetic quality of breeding pairs by splitting detrimental pairs and allowing the members to re-pair in different ways. We apply the framework to the wild population of the Critically Endangered helmeted honeyeater by combining genomic data and field observations to estimate the inbreeding (i.e., pair-kinship) and genetic quality (i.e., Mate Suitability Index) of all mating pairs for seven consecutive breeding seasons. We found no evidence of population-level inbreeding avoidance and that ~91.6% of breeding pairs were detrimental to the genetic health of the population. Furthermore, the framework revealed that neither proposed management strategy would significantly improve the genetic quality or reduce inbreeding of the mating pairs in this population. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of our analytical framework for testing the efficacy of different in situ breeding management strategies and for making evidence-based management decisions.

中文翻译：

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评估濒危种群原位育种管理策略的新框架

保护育种管理旨在减少近亲繁殖并最大限度地保留濒危种群的遗传多样性。然而，野生种群的育种管理仍然很少见，需要提供数据驱动的证据证明替代原位策略成功的可能性。在这里，我们提供了一个在计算机上使用的分析框架模拟评估，对于真实的野生种群，（i）种群水平近交避免的程度，（ii）交配对的遗传质量，以及（iii）实施两种育种管理策略的潜在遗传益处。所提出的策略旨在通过分裂有害配对并允许成员以不同方式重新配对来提高育种配对的遗传质量。我们通过结合基因组数据和实地观察来估计所有交配对的近亲繁殖（即配对亲缘关系）和遗传质量（即配偶适宜性指数）连续七次繁殖，从而将该框架应用于极度濒危头盔蜜饯的野生种群季节。我们没有发现种群水平近交避免的证据，而且~91。6% 的繁殖对对种群的遗传健康有害。此外，该框架表明，所提出的管理策略都不会显着提高该种群中交配对的遗传质量或减少近交。我们的结果证明了我们的分析框架对于测试不同的功效的有用性原地育种管理策略和制定循证管理决策。