This study uses individual level data from a 13-year, nationally representative rotating panel survey of Kyrgyzstan to estimate the effects of fluctuations in predicted income on health and nutrition outcomes from early childhood to adulthood. We consider impacts on both undernutrition and overnutrition side-by-side, and carefully consider the mechanisms at work. We address the endogeneity of income following Bartik (1991): We construct a measure of predicted income, obtained using the household's initial period share of income from different sources and aggregate national growth rates over time in each source. We find that young children (under age 5) exposed to reductions in predicted income experienced reductions in important measures of health and nutrition: weight, weight-for-age Z-scores, and weight-for-height Z-scores. We further identify reductions in both weight and height among older children (aged 5–18). Declines in child health and nutrition are most pronounced among households most dependent on agriculture and those living in rural areas. Reduced consumption of healthy foods and reduced parental time spent with children may help explain the results. A channel possibly offsetting negative impacts is increased use of contraceptives. At the same time, older children and adults experienced decreases in body mass index and—for adults—decreases in the incidence of overweight and obesity, suggesting selective health benefits for some groups.

中文翻译：

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收入波动对整个生命周期中营养不足和营养过剩的影响

本研究使用来自吉尔吉斯斯坦 13 年、具有全国代表性的轮换小组调查的个人水平数据来估计预测收入的波动对从幼儿到成年的健康和营养结果的影响。我们并排考虑对营养不足和营养过剩的影响，并仔细考虑起作用的机制。我们按照 Bartik (1991) 解决收入的内生性问题：我们构建了一个预测收入的衡量标准，使用家庭在不同来源的初始收入份额和每个来源随时间推移的总国家增长率获得。我们发现，暴露于预期收入减少的幼儿（5 岁以下）经历了重要的健康和营养指标的减少：体重、年龄别体重Z- 分数和身高别体重Z分数。我们进一步发现年龄较大的儿童（5-18 岁）的体重和身高都有所降低。在最依赖农业的家庭和生活在农村地区的家庭中，儿童健康和营养的下降最为明显。减少健康食品的消费和减少父母与孩子相处的时间可能有助于解释结果。一个可能抵消负面影响的渠道是增加避孕药具的使用。与此同时，年龄较大的儿童和成人的体重指数有所下降，对于成年人来说，超重和肥胖的发生率也有所下降，这表明某些群体有选择性的健康益处。