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Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems
Journal of Risk and Financial Management Pub Date : 2021-07-20 , DOI: 10.3390/jrfm14070335
Stef Kuypers , Thomas Goorden , Bruno Delepierre

The debate about whether or not a growth imperative exists in debt-based, interest-bearing monetary systems has not yet been settled. It is the goal of this paper to introduce a new perspective in this discussion. For that purpose, an SFC computational model is constructed that simulates a post-Keynesian endogenous money system without including economic parameters such as production, wages, consumption and savings. The case is made that isolating the monetary system allows for better analysis of the inherent properties of such a system. Loan demands, which are assumed to happen, are the driving force of the model. Simulations can be run in two modes, each based on a different assumption. Either the growth rate of the money stock is assumed to be constant or the loan ratio, expressed as a percentage of the money stock, is assumed to be constant. Simulations with varying parameters were run in order to determine the conditions under which the model converges to stability, which is defined as converging to a bounded debt ratio. The analysis showed that the stability of the model is dependent on net bank profit ratios, expressed relative to their debt assets, remaining below the growth rate of the money stock. Based on these findings, it is argued that the question about the existence of a growth imperative in debt-based, interest-bearing monetary systems needs to be reframed. The question becomes whether a steady-state economy can realistically support such a system without destabilising it. In order to answer this question, the real-world behaviour of economic actors must be included in the model. It was concluded that there are indications that it might not be feasible for a steady-state economy to support a stable debt-based, interest-bearing monetary system without strong interventions. However, more research is necessary for a definite answer. Real-world observable data should be analysed through the lens of the presented model to bring more clarity.

中文翻译:

后凯恩斯主义内生货币体系性质的计算分析

关于在以债务为基础的计息货币体系中是否存在增长必要性的争论尚未解决。本文的目标是在讨论中引入一个新的视角。为此,构建了一个 SFC 计算模型来模拟后凯恩斯主义的内生货币体系,但不包括生产、工资、消费和储蓄等经济参数。案例表明,隔离货币系统可以更好地分析这种系统的内在属性。假设发生的贷款需求是模型的驱动力。模拟可以以两种模式运行,每种模式都基于不同的假设。要么假设货币存量的增长率不变,要么假设贷款比率(表示为货币存量的百分比)不变。运行具有不同参数的模拟以确定模型收敛到稳定性的条件,稳定性定义为收敛到有界债务比率。分析表明,模型的稳定性取决于净银行利润率,相对于其债务资产表示,保持低于货币存量的增长率。基于这些发现,有人认为,需要重新定义基于债务的计息货币体系是否存在增长必要性的问题。问题就变成了一个稳定的经济体能否在不破坏稳定的情况下现实地支持这样一个系统。为了回答这个问题,模型中必须包含经济参与者的真实行为。结论是,有迹象表明,在没有强有力干预的情况下,稳定状态的经济可能无法支持稳定的以债务为基础的计息货币体系。然而,需要更多的研究才能得到明确的答案。应通过所呈现模型的镜头来分析现实世界的可观察数据,以使其更加清晰。
更新日期:2021-07-20
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