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How effective are evacuation orders? An analysis of decision making among vulnerable populations in Florida during hurricane Irma
Travel Behaviour and Society ( IF 5.850 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2021.07.006
Hannah Younes 1 , Aref Darzi 2 , Lei Zhang 3
Affiliation  

Natural disasters preparedness measures are of paramount importance in reducing fatalities, economic tolls, and health concerns for vulnerable populations. One such preparedness measure that policymakers can take is issuing an evacuation order. Our study focuses on vulnerable populations including people in low lying areas, flood evacuation zones, low income communities, sparsely populated areas, and in manufactured or mobile homes. We analyze the evacuation decision and distance of over 170,000 individuals using passively collected location-based service (LBS) data in Florida before, during and after Hurricane Irma. We control for evacuation order, evacuation order date, and storm path. The results of the analysis are in line with hurricane evacuation studies using survey data, which provides validation that using big data can be a reliable and efficient method to analyze hurricane evacuation decision making. Our major findings are that (1) individuals issued a mandatory order are far more likely to evacuate than if given a voluntary order, (2) manufactured and mobile home residents are more likely to evacuate short distances than site-built home residents but less likely to evacuate longer distances, (3) people living in low income census tracts were less likely to evacuate longer distances than those in higher income census tracts and (4) population, employment and road density were positively associated with decision to evacuate. The authors recommend that policies and hurricane preparation measures pay particular attention to less densely populated and low-income regions as these were identified as vulnerable areas that were less likely to evacuate.



中文翻译:

疏散命令的效力如何?飓风艾玛期间佛罗里达州脆弱人群的决策分析

自然灾害准备措施对于减少弱势群体的死亡人数、经济损失和健康问题至关重要。决策者可以采取的一项此类准备措施是发布疏散令。我们的研究重点关注弱势群体,包括低洼地区、洪水疏散区、低收入社区、人口稀少地区以及制造或移动房屋中的人们。我们使用佛罗里达州在飓风艾玛之前、期间和之后被动收集的基于位置的服务 (LBS) 数据分析了超过 170,000 人的疏散决定和距离。我们控制疏散命令、疏散命令日期和风暴路径。分析结果与使用调查数据的飓风疏散研究一致,这提供了验证,即使用大数据可以成为分析飓风疏散决策的可靠且有效的方法。我们的主要发现是:(1) 下达强制命令的个人比发出自愿命令的人更有可能撤离,(2) 制造和移动房屋的居民比现场建造的家庭居民更有可能短距离撤离,但可能性较小为了疏散更远的距离,(3) 生活在低收入人口普查区的人比高收入人口普查区的人更不可能疏散更长的距离,(4) 人口、就业和道路密度与疏散决定呈正相关。

更新日期:2021-07-20
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