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A multi-scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management model for Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration
Journal of Cleaner Production ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128402
X. Li 1 , Y.P. Li 1, 2 , G.H. Huang 1, 2 , J. Lv 3 , Y. Ma 1 , Y.F. Li 1
Affiliation  

Synergistic management of economy-energy-environment nexus (EEEN) system is essential for balancing the tradeoff among economic development, energy supply, and environment conservation. In this study, a multi-scenario input-output economy-energy-environment nexus management (abbreviated as MIO-ENM) model is developed through incorporating input-output model (IOM), scenario analysis, and simulation-optimization techniques within a general framework. MIO-ENM is capable of identifying the main factors affecting the EEEN system as well as generating optimal strategies supporting regional sustainability. The MIO-ENM model is applied to planning EEEN of Pearl River Delta (abbreviated as PRD) urban agglomeration over a long-term planning horizon (2021–2035). Results for planning economic and energy-related activities have been obtained, which can be used for further generating decision alternatives. Results disclose that: (i) development of advanced manufacturing and service industry can improve the regional economic efficiency; (ii) under all scenarios, the proportion of electricity in energy consumption would exceed 35% mainly due to the environmental requirement; (iii) the annual economic growth rate is suggested around 6.0% during 2021–2035; (iv) compared to the conventional approach, the integrated modeling of EEEN can generate optimal joint-management strategies for economy development, energy production, and environmental protection, which are beneficial to the sustainability of the PRD urban agglomeration.



中文翻译:

珠三角城市群多情景投入产出经济-能源-环境关联管理模式

经济-能源-环境关联 (EEEN) 系统的协同管理对于平衡经济发展、能源供应和环境保护之间的权衡至关重要。在本研究中,通过将投入产出模型(IOM)、情景分析和模拟优化技术整合到一个通用框架中,开发了一个多情景的投入产出经济-能源-环境关系管理(简称 MIO-ENM)模型。 . MIO-ENM 能够识别影响 EEEN 系统的主要因素,并生成支持区域可持续性的最佳策略。MIO-ENM 模型应用于珠江三角洲(简称 PRD)城市群长期规划范围(2021-2035 年)的 EEEN 规划。已获得规划经济和能源相关活动的结果,可用于进一步生成决策备选方案。结果表明:(i)发展先进制造业和服务业可以提高区域经济效率;(ii) 在所有情景下,主要是由于环保要求,电力在能源消费中的比重将超过 35%;(iii) 2021-2035 年经济年增长率建议在 6.0%左右;(iv) 与传统方法相比,EEEN 的集成建模可以为经济发展、能源生产和环境保护产生最佳的联合管理策略,有利于珠三角城市群的可持续发展。(一)发展先进制造业和服务业,提高区域经济效率;(ii) 在所有情景下,主要是由于环保要求,电力在能源消费中的比重将超过 35%;(iii) 2021-2035 年经济年增长率建议在 6.0%左右;(iv) 与传统方法相比,EEEN 的集成建模可以为经济发展、能源生产和环境保护产生最佳的联合管理策略,有利于珠三角城市群的可持续发展。(一)发展先进制造业和服务业,提高区域经济效率;(ii) 在所有情景下,主要是由于环保要求,电力在能源消费中的比重将超过 35%;(iii) 2021-2035 年经济年增长率建议在 6.0%左右;(iv) 与传统方法相比,EEEN 的集成建模可以为经济发展、能源生产和环境保护产生最佳的联合管理策略,有利于珠三角城市群的可持续发展。

更新日期:2021-07-24
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