ABSTRACT

We examine neighborhood housing vacancy patterns in the largest 200 metropolitan areas from 2012 to 2019, focusing especially on Sunbelt and Rustbelt metros, both hit hard by the 2007–2011 foreclosure crisis. We pay special attention to neighborhood “hypervacancy,” where large amounts of long-term vacant housing are most likely to impose negative impacts. We find that, in the Sunbelt, hypervacant tracts declined over the 2012 to 2019 period, while they remained constant in Rustbelt metros. Despite this, the results show that hypervacant neighborhoods do exist in the Sunbelt, especially in slower-growth metros. We find that hypervacancy is heavily racialized; hypervacant tracts tend to have relatively large Black and Latinx populations. Regressions show that hypervacancy is shaped by preexisting urban disparities as well as metropolitan housing market strength. After controlling for metropolitan growth and economic factors, whether a city is located in the Sunbelt or the Rustbelt is not found to have an independent effect on the persistence of hypervacancy. There are, in fact, weak-growth metros in both the Sunbelt and the Rustbelt, and they tend to have high levels of vacancy and hypervacancy. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy and practice in cities struggling with hypervacancy.

摘要

我们研究了 2012 年至 2019 年最大的 200 个大都市区的邻里住房空置模式，特别关注阳光地带和铁锈地带大都市，这两个都市都受到 2007 年至 2011 年止赎危机的严重打击。我们特别关注社区的“过度空置”，即大量长期空置住房最有可能造成负面影响。我们发现，在 2012 年至 2019 年期间，阳光地带的过度空置面积有所下降，而锈带都市的空置率则保持不变。尽管如此，结果表明阳光地带确实存在过度空置的社区，尤其是在增长较慢的大都市。我们发现，过度空缺存在严重的种族歧视；过度空置的地区往往有相对较多的黑人和拉丁裔人口。回归显示，过度空置率是由先前存在的城市差异以及大都市住房市场的实力决定的。在控制了大都市增长和经济因素后，一个城市无论是位于阳光地带还是铁锈地带，都没有发现对超空位持续存在的独立影响。事实上，阳光地带和铁锈地带都存在增长疲弱的都市圈，而且它们的空置率和空置率往往很高。我们讨论了这些发现对那些与过度空缺作斗争的城市的政策和实践的影响。