Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.

气候减缓情景设想风能和太阳能的显着增长，但学者们不同意这种增长与历史趋势的比较。在这里，我们将增长模型拟合到风能和太阳能轨迹，以确定在初始加速后增长已经稳定的国家。全国增长遵循 S 曲线，达到陆上风能总电力供应的 0.8%（四分位间距 0.6-1.1%）和太阳能的 0.6%（0.4-0.9%）的最高年增长率。相比之下，在 1.5°C 兼容情景中，有一半设想全球风能增长超过 1.3%，太阳能增长超过 1.4%，而其中四分之一的情景设想全球太阳能每年增长超过 3.3%。复制或超过全球最快的国家增长可能具有挑战性，因为到目前为止，