ABSTRACT

This study predicts future variations in simulated water balance components of Nam Co Lake under projected climate change scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in conjunction with the degree-day melt (DDM) model coupled with the glacier volume-area scaling law. We deduced that the water balance of Nam Co Lake will increase under all selected representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, but it will become negative from 2073 onward (under RCP8.5). Compared to 1981–2010, from 2011 to 2100, the projected Nam Co Lake levels show an increase at a rate of 0.63, 0.70, and 0.41 m/a under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with an area expansion of 778, 855, and 537 km² and a corresponding water volume increase of 155, 17, and 94 km³, respectively; from 2011 to 2100, the lake area will expand by 38.6%, 42.4%, and 26.6% under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively.

摘要

本研究使用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型结合度日融化 (DDM) 模型以及冰川体积-面积比例，预测了在预测的气候变化情景下 Nam Co 湖模拟水平衡成分的未来变化法律。我们推断，在所有选定的代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景下，Nam Co 湖的水平衡都会增加，但从 2073 年起（在 RCP8.5 下）它将变为负值。与 1981-2010 年相比，从 2011 年到 2100 年，预计的纳木错湖水位在 RCP2.6、4.5 和 8.5 下分别以 0.63、0.70 和 0.41 m/a 的速度增加，面积扩大778、855、537 km ²，相应水量增加155、17、94 km ³， 分别; 2011-2100年，在RCP2.6、4.5和8.5条件下，湖泊面积将分别扩大38.6%、42.4%和26.6%。