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Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem
Applied Economics ( IF 1.916 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-18 , DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1947959
Mariarosaria Comunale 1, 2 , Francesco Paolo Mongelli 3, 4
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

Which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years? Answering is challenging due to dimensionality problems caused by a large set of potential determinants, limited data availability, and the prospect of non-stationarity of some variables. We propose an atheoretical framework starting with a set of 35 real, financial, monetary, and institutional variables for nine of the initial euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2019Q4. Using the Weighted-Average Least Squares method, we gather clues about which variables to select. We quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main findings are that institutional reforms, competitiveness, monetary policy and a decrease in systemic risk play a relevant role for long-run growth in the euro area. Surprisingly, the fiscal deficit is not an important factor, and neither is credit to households. Lower debt to GDP ratios are beneficial in the short run. Credit to firms has been an important factor for growth in core countries and an increase in global GDP spillovers positively to the euro area growth in a longer horizon.



中文翻译:

跟踪受维度问题影响的欧元区增长

摘要

在过去的 30 年中,哪些变量支持了欧元区的增长?由于大量潜在决定因素引起的维度问题、有限的数据可用性以及某些变量的非平稳性前景,回答具有挑战性。我们提出了一个非理论框架,从一组 35 个实际、金融、货币和制度变量开始,涵盖 1990 年第一季度和 2019 年第四季度之间的九个初始欧元区国家。使用加权平均最小二乘法,我们收集有关选择哪些变量的线索。我们量化了短期和长期增长的各种决定因素的影响。我们的主要发现是,制度改革、竞争力、货币政策和系统性风险的降低对欧元区的长期增长起着重要作用。出奇,财政赤字不是一个重要因素,对家庭的信贷也不是一个重要因素。从短期来看,较低的债务与 GDP 比率是有益的。对企业的信贷一直是核心国家增长的重要因素,全球 GDP 溢出效应的增加对欧元区长期增长产生积极影响。

更新日期:2021-07-18
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