The browntail moth (Euproctis chrysorrhoea (L.)) is a forest pest that was accidentally introduced in the late 1800’s and spread throughout New England in the early part of the 20th Century. At its peak range expansion in 1915 it encompassed an area of 150,000 km2 after which populations declined. By the 1960s, its distribution had receded to relic populations on outer Cape Cod, MA, and islands in Casco Bay, ME. In 1989 browntail moth resurged in Maine, with periodic, moderate outbreaks before a dramatic increase of the population occurred in 2016. We examined the pattern of annual defoliation by browntail moth since its resurgence in the 1990s as well as variation in populations throughout infested areas in Maine during three years of the recent outbreak, 2016–2018, relative to differences in weather, parasitism and habitat characteristics. Levels of defoliation over 24 yr were predicted by the preceding spring precipitation (−, negative effect) and the year’s previous late summer and early fall temperatures (+, positive effect) when first to third instar larvae feed and then construct winter hibernacula. Late summer temperatures predicted the abundance of hibernacula across outbreak areas (+). Early spring temperatures (+) and early and late spring precipitation (−) predicted early summer larval and pupal nest abundance. Warmer fall temperatures result in more mature populations coming out of winter hibernacula in the spring, whereas spring precipitation drives epizootic outbreaks of Entomophaga aulicae (Reichardt in Bail) Humber (Entomophthorales: Entomophthoraceae). with parasitoids playing a lesser role. Climate trends indicate continued increases in fall temperatures since browntail moth resurgence.

中文翻译：

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影响缅因州Euproctis chrysorrhoea（鳞翅目：Erebidae）种群波动的因素

褐尾蛾 (Euproctis chrysorrhoea (L.)) 是一种森林害虫，在 1800 年代后期意外引入，并在 20 世纪初期在新英格兰蔓延。在 1915 年范围扩张的高峰期，它涵盖了 150,000 平方公里的区域，之后人口下降。到 1960 年代，它的分布已经减少到马萨诸塞州科德角外海和缅因州卡斯科湾岛屿的遗迹种群。1989 年，褐尾蛾在缅因州重新抬头，在 2016 年人口急剧增加之前出现了周期性的中度暴发。我们检查了褐尾蛾自 1990 年代重新抬头以来每年落叶的模式以及整个受感染地区的种群变化。缅因州在最近爆发的三年中，即 2016-2018 年，相对于天气、寄生和栖息地特征的差异。24 年的落叶水平由前一季春季降水（-，负效应）和当年夏末初秋温度（+，正效应）预测，当时第一至第三龄幼虫取食，然后构建冬季冬眠。夏末温度预测了整个爆发区冬眠的丰富性（+）。早春温度（+）和早春和晚春降水（-）预测了初夏幼虫和蛹巢的丰度。秋季气温升高导致春季从冬季冬眠中出现更成熟的种群，而春季降水推动了 Entomophaga aulicae (Reichardt in Bail) Humber (Entomophthorales: Entomophthoraceae) 的动物流行病爆发。寄生蜂的作用较小。