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Testing for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents using robust methodology: evidence from Polish provincial capitals.
Empirical Economics ( IF 2.647 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s00181-021-02080-w
Mateusz Tomal 1
Affiliation  

The aim of this paper is to test for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents across Polish provincial capitals and to identify drivers of convergence club formation. In order to achieve the goal of the study, several novel convergence tests were used, including the Kong et al. (J Econom 209:185-207, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.12.022) and Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771-1855, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x) approaches. Moreover, club convergence analysis was carried out in four different configurations, varying in the technique of trend component extraction from the data. In particular, three well-known methods of time series decomposition were used, i.e. the Hodrick-Prescott, Butterworth and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters, as well as the most recent boosted Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results indicated that rental prices across the studied cities do not share a common path in the long run. It is possible, however, to identify convergence clubs where rents are moving towards a club-specific steady state. Detailed analysis of the structure of estimated clusters showed that data filtering using the boosted Hodrick-Prescott method leads to the most reliable allocation of cities to convergence clubs. Moreover, the estimation of logit models revealed that the likelihood of any two cities belonging to the same convergence club depends mainly on similar levels in terms of the unemployment rate, housing stock, city area, and the number of students. Finally, recommendations for local and national policy-makers concerning the development of the rental market have been formulated, particularly in the areas of urban land-use planning policy, housing legislation and public-private partnerships.

中文翻译:

使用稳健的方法测试住房租金的整体和集群收敛:来自波兰省会的证据。

本文的目的是测试波兰省会城市住房租金的整体收敛和集群收敛,并确定收敛俱乐部形成的驱动因素。为了实现研究的目标,使用了几种新颖的收敛测试,包括 Kong 等人。(J Econom 209:185-207, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.12.022) 和 Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771-1855, 2007. https://doi.org /10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x) 接近。此外,俱乐部收敛分析是在四种不同的配置下进行的,从数据中提取趋势成分的技术各不相同。特别是,使用了三种众所周知的时间序列分解方法,即 Hodrick-Prescott、Butterworth 和 Christiano-Fitzgerald 滤波器,以及最近的增强型 Hodrick-Prescott 滤波器。结果表明,从长远来看,所研究城市的租金价格并没有共同的路径。但是,可以确定租金正朝着特定于俱乐部的稳定状态移动的融合俱乐部。对估计集群结构的详细分析表明,使用 boosted Hodrick-Prescott 方法进行数据过滤可以将城市最可靠地分配给融合俱乐部。此外,logit 模型的估计表明,任何两个城市属于同一个趋同俱乐部的可能性主要取决于失业率、住房存量、城市面积和学生人数方面的相似水平。最后,为地方和国家政策制定者制定了有关发展租赁市场的建议,
更新日期:2021-06-06
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