The COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures imposed damaged the world economy severely. As a consequence of the stringent restrictions on business and social life, as well as the consequent economic downturn, tourism demand has seen a unique dramatic slump in the year 2020. This study concentrates on analysing and forecasting demand for international travel of the euro area in terms of tourism imports. Starting out from a description of the key macroeconomic factors, it then analyses their effects on tourism demand and develops a forecast model using contemporary approaches considering asymmetric income elasticities of tourism demand. Scenarios are elaborated to project demand for foreign travel of the euro area until 2022.

COVID-19 大流行和采取的遏制措施严重破坏了世界经济。由于对商业和社会生活的严格限制以及随之而来的经济下滑，旅游需求在 2020 年出现了独特的急剧下滑。 本研究集中分析和预测欧元区的国际旅游需求。旅游进口条件。从对关键宏观经济因素的描述开始，然后分析它们对旅游需求的影响，并使用考虑到旅游需求的非对称收入弹性的现代方法开发预测模型。对情景进行了阐述，以预测 2022 年之前欧元区的国外旅行需求。