This paper estimates the effect of partisan electoral victories on stock and bond markets. We employ a regression-discontinuity-based event study in a sample of 758 worldwide post-1945 national elections, using existing data on parliamentary elections and newly collected data on presidential elections. Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations, while the response of sovereign bond markets is mostly muted. Stock market effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the left's proposed economic policy is more radical and in developing economies.

中文翻译：

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党派冲击和金融市场：来自全国大选的证据

本文估计了党派选举胜利对股票和债券市场的影响。我们使用现有的议会选举数据和新收集的总统选举数据，对 1945 年后全球 758 次全国选举的样本进行了基于回归不连续性的事件研究。左翼选举的胜利导致股市估值在短期内显着大幅下跌，而主权债券市场的反应大多平淡。在左翼提议的经济政策更为激进的选举中以及在发展中经济体中，股票市场的影响更强大、更持久。