We estimate effects of the largest U.S. federal grant for college students using administrative data from Texas four-year public colleges and a discontinuity in grant generosity. Eligibility for additional grant aid significantly increases degree receipt and earnings beginning four years after entry. Estimated increases in income tax payments fully recoup government expenditures within ten years. A theoretical model shows that welfare effects of changes in college prices depend on (1) externalities from recipients’ behavioral responses and (2) facilitation of intertemporal consumption smoothing. Calibration suggests that increasing grant aid for low-income college students would enhance welfare in many U.S. settings.

中文翻译：

---

ProPelled：赠款对毕业、收入和福利的影响

我们使用德克萨斯四年制公立大学的行政数据和赠款慷慨的不连续性来估计美国最大的联邦大学生赠款的影响。从入学四年后开始，获得额外助学金的资格会显着增加学位获得和收入。估计所得税支付的增加可在十年内完全收回政府支出。一个理论模型表明，大学价格变化的福利效应取决于 (1) 接受者行为反应的外部性和 (2) 跨期消费平滑的促进作用。校准表明，在许多美国环境中，增加对低收入大学生的赠款援助将提高福利。